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Frustration over the war and Vladimir Putin is growing in Moscow. Following the failure of Russia’s spring offensive and a stabilization of the battlefield situation, parts of the Russian elite have become increasingly uneasy, while some senior Kremlin officials reportedly believe the conflict has reached a stalemate with no clear path to resolution, Bloomberg reports.
The publication notes that Ukraine’s growing effectiveness in using drones both along the front line and deep inside Russia is fueling internal criticism of the Russian leader. Combined with economic decline and internet restrictions, this is contributing to rising war fatigue among ordinary Russians.
This sentiment is shared by much of the Russian elite, and some senior Kremlin officials reportedly see the war as a deadlock. According to sources, Putin wants to end the war by the end of the year, but only on terms he considers a victory, including full control over Donbas and a security arrangement with Europe that would effectively recognize Russia’s territorial gains.
Despite Ukraine strengthening its battlefield position, Kyiv has not achieved its core objectives of reclaiming most occupied territories and has not moved closer to an acceptable peace deal in US-led negotiations, which remain stalled.
Last Sunday, Kyiv launched one of its most intense attacks on Moscow and the surrounding region since the start of the war, with many Russians now directly blaming Putin for bringing the war to their doorstep.
Several European diplomats, speaking anonymously, said the mood in Russia is bleak as the front has stalled and drone strikes have brought the war directly to Moscow.
Ukraine, however, is also facing challenges on the battlefield. A war-weary population is increasingly reluctant to join the military, and expanded conscription remains highly unpopular.
Russian ballistic missile strikes also remain a major problem, having severely damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure over the winter. Kyiv has repeatedly reported difficulties securing ammunition for US-made Patriot air defense systems, which have proven to be the only truly effective defense against ballistic missiles.
“Russia is failing on the battlefield. To sustain its military effort in Ukraine, the Kremlin will almost certainly have to carry out a second partial mobilization within the next 12 months,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
