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Russia is unlikely to achieve its goal of fully conquering Ukraine, but Kyiv could still lose part of its territory under a possible “Finnish scenario” for ending the war, according to a new report by JPMorgan Chase.
In its report titled Ukraine Endgame: The Path to an Imperfect Peace, analysts say the war is increasingly likely to be resolved through negotiations, as the battlefield has largely reached a stalemate and the front line has barely shifted for more than two years.
Under this scenario, Ukraine would preserve its sovereignty, democratic system, military, and Western orientation, while potentially accepting neutrality and limits on its armed forces as part of a compromise with Russia. Moscow, meanwhile, could portray the outcome as a political victory despite failing to force Ukraine’s capitulation.
The comparison refers to Finland’s postwar experience with the Soviet Union. After losing around 10% of its territory, Finland maintained its independence, market economy, and ties with the West while avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow.
JPMorgan analysts now estimate the probability of a “Finnish scenario” at 50%, compared with 30% for a “Georgian scenario,” in which Ukraine would return to Russia’s sphere of influence. A year ago, the bank viewed the Georgian model as the most likely outcome, but it has since revised its assessment due to stronger European support for Kyiv.
The report also assigns a 10% probability to an “Israel scenario” and 5% each to “South Korea” and “Belarus” models.
Meanwhile, peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow remain effectively frozen. Kyrylo Budanov has said he still believes negotiations could eventually lead to an end to the war, while analysts at the Institute for the Study of War argue there are currently no signs that Russia is prepared to stop its aggression.
