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The head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaido Rosin, told CNN that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have only a few months left to negotiate from a position of strength in the war against Ukraine.
Rosin said that within the next four to five months, Putin could lose the ability to dictate terms on the battlefield as the conflict has largely stalled and internal pressures inside Russia continue to grow.
According to him, Russian forces are no longer achieving meaningful breakthroughs despite heavy losses, while battlefield momentum has largely plateaued. He also noted that Russia is suffering higher casualties than it can sustainably replace.
The assessment highlights the growing impact of drone warfare on both sides, which has significantly reduced the possibility of large-scale mechanized offensives.
Estonian intelligence further warns that any attempt by Moscow to significantly escalate the war would likely require another wave of mobilization — a politically risky step that could destabilize domestic conditions in Russia, as seen after the 2022 partial mobilization.
Rosin also pointed to increasing economic strain, sanctions pressure, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, saying they are collectively weakening the Kremlin’s long-term position.
At the same time, he stressed there are no current signs of imminent internal collapse or street unrest in Russia, citing tight control by security services, though he did not rule out sudden systemic instability if conditions shift abruptly.
