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A critical floating ice shelf attached to Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier—often called the “Doomsday Glacier”—may be on the verge of breaking away, potentially accelerating the destabilization of one of the world’s most vulnerable ice systems, according to researchers cited by Live Science.
Scientists say the Thwaites Glacier could ultimately raise global sea levels by up to 65 centimeters if it fully collapses, threatening coastal regions worldwide. While complete disintegration would likely take centuries, experts warn that the loss of its stabilizing ice shelf could speed up the process significantly.
Satellite observations suggest that the eastern portion of the Thwaites ice shelf is close to detaching from the main glacier. Although the glacier itself rests on land, its floating ice shelf acts as a “buttress,” slowing the flow of ice into the ocean. Once this support weakens or collapses, glacier movement into the sea can accelerate.
Robert Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey, said the shelf is likely to disintegrate in the near future, possibly as soon as 2026, though the exact timing and mechanism remain uncertain. He emphasized that collapse is expected, even if its form cannot yet be precisely predicted.
Thwaites Glacier, the widest in West Antarctica at roughly 120 kilometers across and up to 2,000 meters thick, has been rapidly losing mass since the 1980s. Researchers attribute this to warm ocean water flowing beneath the ice and melting it from below, particularly where the glacier bed lies below sea level.
Since the early 1990s, the glacier has retreated by about 20 kilometers and continues to lose hundreds of billions of tons of ice annually. Some models suggest it could lose between 180 and 200 billion tons of ice per year by mid-century if current trends continue.
Scientists warn that Thwaites is a “keystone” glacier for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Its collapse could destabilize surrounding ice formations and contribute to a long-term sea-level rise of up to 3.3 meters if the entire ice sheet were eventually lost.
While the full collapse is not imminent, researchers increasingly view parts of the system as approaching irreversible tipping points driven by ocean warming and climate change.
