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An asteroid about 60 meters in diameter could hit the Moon in December 2032, with scientists currently estimating the probability at around 4%, according to Science Alert. While the likelihood remains low, it is not zero, prompting researchers to assess both the risks and scientific opportunities of such an event.
The object, designated 2024 YR4, is expected to pass close to the Moon on December 22–23, 2032. If an impact occurs, it would release energy comparable to a medium-sized thermonuclear explosion. Scientists note that the collision would be roughly a million times more powerful than the last confirmed asteroid impact on the Moon in 2013.
Researchers led by Ifan He of Tsinghua University have examined the potential scientific value of observing such an impact in real time. The collision would provide a rare opportunity to study high-energy impacts directly, generating data that cannot be replicated through simulations alone.
The impact is expected to vaporize lunar rock and create plasma, producing a crater about one kilometer wide and 150–260 meters deep, with a molten rock pool roughly 100 meters across at its center. The event would also trigger a global “moonquake” with a magnitude of about 5.0—the strongest ever recorded—offering new insights into the Moon’s internal structure.
Scientists also predict that the impact would eject a cloud of debris into space. Around 400 kilograms of lunar material could survive entry into Earth’s atmosphere, effectively delivering Moon samples to Earth. At peak activity around Christmas 2032, up to 20 million meteors per hour could enter Earth’s atmosphere, many visible to the naked eye, including 100–400 bright fireballs per hour.
While most debris would burn up, some fragments could reach the surface, potentially affecting regions including South America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. A greater concern, researchers warn, is the risk posed to satellites and space infrastructure in Earth orbit.
Due to these potential hazards, several space agencies are already considering asteroid-deflection missions to prevent a possible impact with the Moon.
