Photo: EPA
Putin will only agree to a peace deal if he realizes he has no real choice but to end the invasion of Ukraine
One of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s least convincing tactics during the war against Ukraine has been threatening the West with “doomsday” scenarios whenever he finds himself in a difficult position. Early in the full-scale invasion, as the Biden administration debated supplying Kyiv with tanks and heavy armor, Putin warned of the possibility of escalating to a full-scale nuclear war. Similar threats were made during discussions about providing Western fighter jets, such as F-16s, to Ukraine.
Putin even allowed Russia’s strategic nuclear forces to conduct exercises intended largely to intimidate Western leaders. The latest of his threats — that Russia is prepared for war with Europe if European leaders do not accept Moscow’s maximalist territorial demands in Ukraine — should be seen as empty posturing rather than a genuine military plan, according to The Telegraph.
These statements followed efforts by European leaders, alongside Ukraine, to revise an early U.S. peace plan proposed during Donald Trump’s presidency, which many had viewed as effectively capitulating to Russian demands. NATO leaders are urged not to fear Putin’s latest threats, as a direct military confrontation would clearly favor the alliance. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized in October that Russia must be cautious, as NATO’s overall firepower far exceeds Moscow’s capabilities.
However, Putin’s tirades have not always been without effect. One reason the war has dragged on for nearly four years is that then-President Joe Biden hesitated to take measures that might provoke Russian escalation. Repeatedly, he weighed whether to provide Ukraine with the advanced weaponry it needed to sustain its operations. As a result, Ukraine received defensive support but not the tools to decisively defeat Russian forces.
The current round of U.S.-led negotiations aimed at ending the war must avoid the same mistake. Trump, unlike Biden, appears ready to confront Putin directly. He has previously demonstrated willingness to play high-stakes games, such as flying a B-2 nuclear bomber in a U.S. Air Force display ahead of Putin’s visit to Alaska in August, and has since ordered renewed U.S. nuclear weapons testing.
Trump is also aware of Putin’s domestic and economic vulnerabilities. Despite Russian claims of battlefield victories and economic strength, Moscow has suffered heavy military losses and significant economic damage. Recent Trump-era sanctions, including blacklisting two major Russian oil producers, have already cut Russia’s monthly export revenue by roughly one-third.
Further punitive measures could be applied if Putin refuses to accept a ceasefire. These could include tighter sanctions on countries like China and India that continue to buy Russian oil, as well as targeting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. Additionally, Trump could approve the transfer of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, giving Kyiv the ability to strike deep into Russian territory — a move that could decisively shift the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor.
Ultimately, if Trump is serious about ending the war, he must recognize that Putin will only accept a peace agreement once he concludes there is no viable alternative to halting the invasion of Ukraine.
