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China is rapidly increasing purchases of Russian crude to replace supplies disrupted by the Middle East crisis, putting pressure on India’s oil imports and raising the risk of a fuel shortage across Asia, Reuters reports.
According to Kpler analysts, China’s seaborne imports of Russian crude are expected to reach 1.25 million barrels per day in August. While this is below July’s 1.423 million barrels per day, both months are among the highest volumes recorded since April.
China has also changed the composition of its Russian oil purchases. While imports previously focused mainly on Russia’s eastern ESPO crude, shipments of Urals crude from European Russian ports accounted for 31% of imports in August.
India loses access to Russian crude
The shift toward China has reduced supplies available to India, the main buyer of Russian crude shipped from European Russian ports.
India’s total imports of Russian energy fell to 1.87 million barrels per day in August, down from 2.79 million in July and 2.73 million in June.
India is already struggling to replace the Russian crude now being diverted to China. As the region’s largest exporter of gasoline and diesel, India could begin feeling the effects of reduced refinery feedstock as early as September.
A sustained shortage of crude could force Indian refiners to cut exports of refined products, potentially triggering a severe fuel shortage across Asia.
Russia is also adjusting its oil logistics, including redirecting some Kazakh oil exports from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea to free up export capacity amid the risk of further attacks.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes have reportedly disrupted up to 40% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, contributing to fuel shortages that have already affected roughly one-third of the Russian population.
