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It was a stark message delivered to a skeptical audience of Western diplomats gathered in Kyiv last week to hear the administration of President Donald Trump present its pro-Russian peace plan to end Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
For years, Russia had been firing missiles at Ukraine almost as fast as it could produce them. But now, Moscow is manufacturing enough to build a growing stockpile of long-range weapons, U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll told the diplomats, according to two Western officials cited by The New York Times.
The implication, the officials said, was clear: a rapid settlement of the war was necessary because of the rising missile threat that could inflict devastating damage on Ukraine — and potentially reach beyond its borders.
Although it is seen as unlikely that Russia would significantly slow weapons production even after the war, ending the invasion could deprive the Kremlin of a pretext for launching missile or drone attacks on other European states.
Western officials who attended the Nov. 21 meeting with Driscoll and spoke to The Times on condition of anonymity described Russia’s growing military capacity as alarming and said the warning resonated.
Traditionally, the United States would have been more inclined to condemn Russia for expanding its weapons arsenal than use Moscow’s production pace as a rationale to sell a peace deal disadvantageous to the victim of Russian aggression.
Russia’s evolving missile-production dynamics have become the backdrop for a new round of Trump-administration efforts to force an end to the war. Driscoll — a close ally of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance — has emerged as an unexpected leader of American diplomacy in the Ukraine peace talks.
The administration continues to argue that Russia has the upper hand and that Ukraine should agree to a peace deal as soon as possible.
U.S. assessments that Moscow is stockpiling missiles — supported by Ukrainian military intelligence and independent analysts — point to significant changes in Russia’s defense industry.
Analysts warn that Russia could use its reserves to further destroy Ukraine’s already damaged energy infrastructure, exhaust Kyiv’s supply of air-defense interceptors, and make cities such as the capital more vulnerable. It could also threaten missile or drone strikes on other European countries.
In September, after peace talks stalled, Russia responded with missile strikes that damaged, among other sites, the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv and an American-owned plant in western Ukraine. This week, as negotiations again appeared to gain momentum, Moscow launched another deadly barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at the capital.
The warning about Russia’s growing stockpile marks a reversal from the situation just a year ago. Evidence that Russia was firing missiles as soon as they were made included the July 2024 strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv, where investigators found components manufactured only months earlier.
Newer missile parts and imports of weapons from North Korea and Iran suggested at the time that Russia was operating at or near the limits of its military-industrial capacity.
But by June this year, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russia had expanded its annual production capacity to 2,900 cruise and ballistic missiles. This includes Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and repurposed anti-ship missiles used to strike Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine’s Air Force has recorded a steady increase in missile attacks. According to The Times’ analysis of Air Force data, Russia launched 2,061 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine last year and is on track to fire even more this year.
Yet even with intensified strikes, Russia is keeping hundreds of additional missiles in reserve.
“Launches are not keeping pace with production,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile researcher at the University of Oslo.
He said Moscow may be stockpiling weapons for contingencies outside Ukraine or to strengthen pressure on Kyiv.
Russia is already firing ballistic missiles at a rate that exceeds Ukraine’s ability to replenish the two types of interceptors capable of stopping them — the U.S. Patriot system and the French-Italian SAMP/T. This trend, Hoffmann warned, risks leaving Kyiv without enough interceptors to defend the capital.
“People tracking missile numbers are deeply worried,” he added.
While Driscoll may have cited the growing stockpile as a reason Ukraine should quickly sign a peace deal, Hoffmann cautioned that Russia’s reserves will only grow if active fighting stops.
“If Russia emerges from this war feeling victorious, it could become far bolder in the future — and it will have a massive stockpile of long-range weapons,” he said.
As Politico reported, Trump’s overriding goal is to end Russia’s war against Ukraine regardless of the terms of the eventual peace agreement. And although the moment of greatest diplomatic danger for Ukraine appears to have passed for now — with some harmful elements of the original U.S. proposal reportedly softened — The Economist warned that given Trump’s approach, no one can be confident that the most damaging provisions can be removed entirely. Even if they are, the choice facing Ukraine and its European allies will only become more difficult.
