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The United States has warned several Persian Gulf countries that it could launch a new, short but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources. Analysts doubt that renewed attacks would force Tehran to capitulate.
The warnings, delivered through diplomatic and military channels, signal that the US and Israel are considering another round of major operations aimed at weakening Iran and pushing it toward negotiations.
According to flight-tracking data and officials, the US military is sending an additional Patriot air defense system from Texas to Israel. US forces have also moved away from vulnerable bases in the Middle East in preparation for a possible escalation.
American forces in the region are replenishing ammunition stocks, while bombers and fighter jets are preparing for potential strikes, officials said. An additional carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit could join a fleet of around 20 other US warships in the Middle East next month. Some ships may also leave the region as part of routine rotations.
President Donald Trump has not made a final decision but is leaning toward large-scale strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Potential targets include Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities.
An alternative would be to pursue a deal, but diplomatic efforts by regional mediators have so far failed to produce results.
The White House declined to comment on “sensitive military plans.”
“President Trump is keeping all options on the table to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon,” the White House added.
Trump has said he would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. According to WSJ sources, the deployment of US forces and other preparations are intended to give him options if he decides to resume strikes.
Israel has also prepared plans and target lists for new attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to advocate renewed strikes, hoping to weaken Iran and overthrow its government.
Resuming airstrikes would mark a shift away from the Trump administration’s campaign of economic pressure. Sanctions and a naval blockade have restricted Iranian oil sales for months, crippled much of its air traffic and limited overland trade, intensifying pressure on the economy.
Analysts doubt strikes would force Iran to surrender
Many analysts believe Tehran is unlikely to capitulate under renewed attacks. Iran has survived previous rounds of US and Israeli strikes and continues to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf and American forces in the region, while maintaining hard-line demands in negotiations.
“One of the biggest mistakes Israel and the US are making, in my view, is assuming that another round of strikes against Iran — including attacks on critical infrastructure or the killing of senior officials — will somehow bring down the regime,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence officer.
He warned that further bombing could instead entrench Iran’s leadership and strengthen its determination to defend its missile and nuclear programs.
Seth Jones, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested Trump could use another round of strikes to declare victory and then reduce US involvement in the war, even if the attacks failed to deliver a decisive outcome.
“I don’t think anything can permanently halt their nuclear program. However, strikes would allow Trump to begin gradually withdrawing from the conflict and claim that the development of Iran’s nuclear program had once again been delayed,” Jones said.
Iran threatens retaliation
Iran has warned through public and private channels that it would respond to any attack with heavy strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region.
Tehran issued similar threats before the war, then attacked US bases and diplomatic facilities, as well as energy infrastructure and airports in the Persian Gulf.
Any new Iranian retaliation would come as the US and its Gulf allies are trying to replenish air defense stockpiles depleted by previous waves of Iranian attacks.
Iran retains hundreds to thousands of missiles and has used the lull in fighting to strengthen its defenses and prepare new retaliation plans. Israeli officials are concerned about how quickly Iran is rebuilding its military capabilities.
Middle Eastern mediators are making efforts to restart negotiations and prevent another wave of fighting, but so far without success. Washington insists that talks address Iran’s nuclear program, while Tehran has set tough conditions for resuming negotiations.
The war with Iran, which Trump said would end within weeks, has now lasted eight months. It has driven fuel prices to record highs and caused shortages of fertilizers and other commodities, as Tehran has targeted critical energy infrastructure in Gulf countries — the world’s leading oil-producing region — and disrupted export routes.
The Financial Times has reported that the US is preparing for a prolonged conflict with Iran while hoping that bombing and economic sanctions will force Tehran to make major concessions. The New York Times has also reported that renewed fighting is unlikely to be more successful than previous phases of intensive US and Israeli strikes. During each previous phase, Iran’s leadership became less willing to compromise.
Tehran has also threatened to target internet cables and data centers in the Persian Gulf if the US and Israel resume attacks.
