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Iran is rejecting attempts to find a diplomatic exit from the war launched by the United States and Israel, relying instead on its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The Washington Post, Iranian and European diplomats, as well as an Arab official, say Tehran is escalating attacks on its neighbors rather than moving toward capitulation.
Iran is рассчитывает that it can deepen global economic disruption faster than the administration of Donald Trump can counter it through military force.
Leverage over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s position is closely tied to its influence over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global fuel supplies pass.
Partially restricting the strait is seen by Tehran as a way to make the conflict “extremely costly for aggressors,” an Iranian diplomat said.
“We are standing alone against the most powerful military superpower in history,” he added.
European diplomats and an Arab official said Iranian leaders view their ability to pressure global energy markets and withstand U.S. and Israeli pressure as a form of short-term victory.
“As long as this regime exists, it can spread instability in the region and shake global markets through oil and gas prices. For them, that is victory. They feel no pressure to negotiate,” one European diplomat working in the Persian Gulf said.
Regime resilience and переговори conditions
Sources told the newspaper that officials from Qatar and Oman recently initiated contacts with Iran regarding a possible ceasefire. Their conclusion: even overwhelming military force from the U.S. and Israel is unlikely to topple the Iranian government in the near term.
Tehran has signaled it would agree to negotiations only if the U.S. and Israel halt attacks first.
“Iran will not be ready to stop strikes on American interests unless Washington agrees to a set of non-aggression guarantees, including financial compensation for war-related damage,” a source said.
According to a European official who previously worked in Iran, a series of assassinations of senior Iranian figures has further reduced Tehran’s willingness to negotiate.
In particular, the killing of Ali Larijani — who was seen as a key figure capable of engaging with the West — has undermined prospects for dialogue.
Escalation risks
Recently, Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not “fully reopened” within 48 hours.
In response, Iran warned it could plunge Gulf countries into darkness if its energy infrastructure is targeted.
