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Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and their regional neighbors are reportedly discussing a coordinated military response to Tehran, aware of the potential cost of such escalation.
The most powerful Gulf states — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — have begun preparing for a possible scenario in which they could join a broader U.S.-Israeli military confrontation against Iran. Some of their regional partners are also reportedly willing to align with them. According to Bloomberg, citing several anonymous sources, a military strike against Iran could be launched if Tehran attacks critical infrastructure in Gulf countries, including power plants and water supply systems.
Gulf monarchies under pressure
Iran has already carried out strikes on ports, energy facilities, and airports across Gulf countries, according to the report. In the past 24 hours alone, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were reportedly forced to intercept Iranian drones and missiles.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Iran is said to have launched nearly five thousand rockets and drones at regional targets. These allegedly included oil and gas infrastructure, airports, U.S. military bases, as well as residential, diplomatic, and tourist areas. The UAE reportedly suffered the heaviest impact, with at least 20 deaths across Gulf states.
Tehran justifies its strikes by arguing that regional countries provide the United States with airspace and territory used for attacks on Iran. Gulf states reject these accusations.
“Point of no return”
Despite growing tensions, most Gulf countries are not yet ready to enter a full-scale war. A “red line” for immediate military response is reportedly defined as an Iranian strike on electricity or water infrastructure, which is considered critical for survival in the region’s desert environment.
Another factor limiting escalation is uncertainty over U.S. policy. According to a European diplomat cited by Bloomberg, President Donald Trump could suddenly reach a deal with Tehran, potentially leaving Gulf monarchies exposed to retaliation.
Trump has reportedly threatened strikes on Iranian power facilities if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, later announcing a five-day pause to allow diplomacy. Iran, in turn, has allegedly named specific energy and water infrastructure targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in case of escalation.
Kharg Island scenario
A separate potential escalation scenario involves a possible U.S. operation to seize Kharg Island, through which around 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass.
According to an Iranian security official, U.S. forces for such an operation could be deployed from the UAE’s Al Dhafra air base. Tehran warns that if the UAE allows its territory to be used, Iran would respond with a severe strike against the country.
Iran is also reportedly prepared to mine the Strait of Hormuz and wider Gulf waters, potentially disrupting a maritime route that previously carried around 20% of global oil consumption.
Proxy networks
The UAE has reportedly dismantled what it described as a militant network linked to Hezbollah and Iran. Kuwait also announced the discovery of cells allegedly planning sabotage operations against critical infrastructure.
In response, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have strengthened intelligence sharing and coordination, focusing on protecting infrastructure, food security, and emergency preparedness.
Regional coalition efforts
A recent meeting in Riyadh included Gulf Cooperation Council members (excluding Oman), as well as Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey — countries involved in diplomatic efforts with Iran.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated that Iran should understand that Gulf states and their partners possess significant capabilities if they choose to act, adding that “patience is not unlimited.”
The UAE has taken a particularly firm stance, emphasizing that it will not be intimidated and insisting on long-term solutions addressing Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, drones, and regional influence.
Analysts cited in the report suggest that if attacks on Gulf infrastructure continue, the region could be forced into a coordinated coalition response resembling past anti–Islamic State operations.
Broader context
The report also references wider regional developments involving Israel, the United States, Iran, and proxy groups such as Hezbollah, including strikes, counterstrikes, and escalating military posturing across multiple theaters.
It notes that increasing tensions in the Middle East could have broader implications for global energy markets, international alliances, and other ongoing conflicts, including Ukraine, particularly in terms of weapons supply and strategic attention from Western partners.
