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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has threatened to halt gas supplies to Ukraine unless oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline is restored. However, experts say the practical consequences of such a move would be limited.
Energy analyst Volodymyr Omelchenko notes that Hungary is not a key gas supplier for Ukraine. Less than 20% of Ukraine’s gas imports currently pass through Hungary, while the main routes run via Poland and Slovakia.
Limited dependence on Hungary
According to Omelchenko:
- Ukraine is currently importing very small volumes of gas, reducing overall vulnerability.
- Supplies through Hungary represent a minor share of total imports.
- Kyiv can easily manage without Hungarian transit, at least in the short term.
“There are absolutely no problems at the moment,” the expert emphasized.
Legal and economic risks for Hungary
Omelchenko also stressed that Orbán’s statements contradict the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement, which guarantees the free transit of energy resources.
If Hungary were to actually block gas flows:
- Ukraine could take legal action within the European Union framework
- Budapest could face significant financial penalties
- The move would undermine EU energy market rules
Political context: elections factor
The expert believes Orbán’s rhetoric is driven primarily by domestic politics ahead of elections in Hungary.
He argues that the Hungarian leader is attempting to mobilize voters by portraying Ukraine as an adversary, especially as his approval ratings trail behind political rivals.
“This is part of an election campaign. There is no need for panic,” Omelchenko said, suggesting Ukraine should avoid escalating rhetoric and instead wait until after the vote.
Bottom line
Despite громкі заяви from Budapest, Ukraine’s energy system is currently stable, diversified, and capable of withstanding a potential cutoff of Hungarian gas supplies without immediate disruption.
