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Preparing the Middle East operation, U.S. President Donald Trump underestimated Iran — and this turned out to be his major error, reports The New York Times.
Although the United States and Israel struck Iranian targets, they did not anticipate Tehran’s strong retaliation, which disrupted a key global oil route.
What went wrong
Before the conflict, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright assured that any oil supply disruption would be minimal, citing earlier strikes on Iran in June 2025. Trump acknowledged the risks but expected only a short-term problem.
Iran responded differently, threatening attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage carrying roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Shipping in the Persian Gulf effectively stopped, oil prices surged, and U.S. gasoline prices increased sharply.
Confusion in Washington
Secretary Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the strait, briefly boosting markets. The post was later deleted, as no escort occurred, and markets fell again. Senator Christopher Murphy noted that the administration “has no plan for the Strait of Hormuz and doesn’t know how to reopen it safely.”
Inside the administration, some officials reportedly feared the lack of an exit strategy but avoided briefing Trump.
The cost of the mistake
In the first two days of the conflict, the U.S. spent $5.6 billion on munitions — far exceeding initial estimates. Iran could have mined the strait, prompting Defense Secretary Pete Hegset to warn of uncompromising U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels.
Iranian official Ali Larijani wrote: “The Strait of Hormuz will either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all, or a strait of defeat and suffering for those who provoke war.” Trump, meanwhile, urged tanker crews to “be brave” and continue through the passage.
As a result, Brent crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, reaching $104 — a rise of over 15%. U.S. stock futures fell nearly 2% on the Dow, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq also down. Gasoline in the U.S. rose 16% in a week, hitting $3.45 per gallon (≈$3.78 per 3.78 liters).
The Trump administration attempted to calm markets, and Treasury Secretary Bessent even hinted at easing sanctions on Russian oil to offset shortages caused by the Iranian conflict.
