Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine
The war against Iran and its economic consequences could deal a serious political blow to U.S. President Donald Trump, according to The Guardian. The issue concerns potential domestic political consequences for the current American leader.
Trump remains confident after the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The swift operation to detain Maduro not only gave Trump leverage over Venezuela’s oil and key mineral resources but also allowed him to increase pressure on the government of Cuba, raising speculation that the United States might eventually challenge the communist regime that has irritated Washington since 1959.
Trump believes that the joint operation with Israel against Iran will be similarly successful. The wave of Iranian missiles and drones launched toward Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors has not shaken his confidence in victory, regardless of how that “victory” is defined.
Trump has argued that even if the war disrupts global energy markets, the U.S. economy will withstand the shock. He stated that short-term oil price spikes, which he believes would fall rapidly once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated, would be a small price to pay for global security.
Part of Trump’s confidence also stems from the fact that his unpredictable policies have not yet caused the economic damage many analysts predicted. Despite tariffs, reductions in the U.S. federal workforce, immigration deportations, and repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve, leading economists only weeks ago were still debating whether the American economy could achieve a “soft landing” after the era of high inflation.
The United States is relatively insulated from energy price shocks compared with other major economies. Oil imports have fallen significantly as domestic production has increased since the early 2000s. Natural gas — whose domestic price is less sensitive to global market swings — now plays a larger role in the country’s energy supply.
Currently, oil accounts for about 38% of U.S. energy consumption, nearly 10 percentage points less than during the 1973 oil crisis, when Arab producers halted supplies to punish Washington for supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Meanwhile, the share of natural gas has increased from 30% to around 36%.
However, markets reacted sharply when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supplies pass, and when Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production.
Despite Trump’s confidence, analysts warn he could still face defeat — not militarily, but politically. The greatest threat to American military interventions has historically been domestic public opposition, and the war with Iran has been unpopular from the start.
Rising energy prices could further erode support. Gasoline prices in the United States have already climbed above $3.50 per gallon, the highest level since Trump took office. The U.S. government now predicts that retail gasoline prices may not return to 2025 levels until autumn 2027, while diesel prices are expected to remain above pre-war levels at least until the end of next year.
Higher fuel costs would likely ripple across the economy. Trucking companies could pass increased expenses to consumers, farmers facing higher fuel and fertilizer costs may raise food prices, and retailers and airlines would also face higher operational costs.
All of this could affect inflation figures — which stood at 2.4% year-on-year in February — and complicate efforts by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. High gasoline prices could also hurt sales of large SUVs, traditionally popular among American consumers.
These factors could significantly damage Trump’s approval ratings. His administration has already proposed measures to stabilize oil markets, including insurance for tankers and naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil sanctions on Russia, and exploring ways to expand oil production in Venezuela to offset supply disruptions.
Still, analysts say such steps may not be enough to stop the largest oil price surge in three decades. Either the war must end, or Iran’s ability to threaten tankers in the Strait of Hormuz must be significantly reduced.
Trump has publicly claimed both that Iran could be forced into “unconditional surrender” and that the war is “virtually over.” However, some of his advisers reportedly acknowledge that airstrikes alone rarely secure long-term victory. Even if infrastructure is destroyed, groups such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij would likely continue fighting.
Trump could declare victory on alternative grounds and withdraw U.S. forces, but that might appear politically weak. Other options — deploying ground troops or expanding bombing campaigns — could prolong the conflict and deepen its economic consequences.
As a result, analysts warn that while capturing a leader like Maduro may have been relatively easy, similar strategies may not translate into lasting geopolitical success elsewhere. Reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal also indicate that internal debates within the White House are intensifying, with some advisers urging Trump to seek an exit strategy from the war with Iran to avoid potential political fallout.
