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Russia may have suffered between 374,000 and 770,000 military fatalities since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Including wounded personnel, total Russian casualties are estimated at between 1.4 million and 2.1 million, according to a new analysis by The Economist.
The publication released its updated estimates on October 30. Its previous assessments showed a sharp increase in Russian losses over the past 15 months:
July 2025: 190,000–350,000 killed; 900,000–1.3 million killed and wounded.
May 2026: 280,000–518,000 killed; 1.1–1.5 million killed and wounded.
October 2026: 374,000–770,000 killed; 1.4–2.1 million killed and wounded.
Since May 2026, the lower estimate of Russian fatalities has risen by 94,000, while the upper estimate has increased by 252,000. Compared with July 2025, the lower figure has nearly doubled and the upper estimate has grown 2.2 times.
How the estimates are calculated
Russia does not publish reliable official figures for its military losses. The Economist therefore uses a statistical model combining information from Western intelligence agencies, defense ministries and independent researchers.
These figures are cross-referenced with the publication’s own battlefield tracker, which takes into account the intensity of fighting and changes along the front line.
Ukrainian figures also point to exceptionally high Russian losses. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian forces lost 49,040 personnel in October as of October 29, the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale invasion. Three days remained in the month at the time of the report.
The previous monthly record was 48,670 personnel, recorded in December 2024.
Drones account for a significant share of Russian casualties. Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine’s Defense Forces have killed or wounded 302,000 Russian troops using unmanned aerial vehicles, according to Ukrainian figures.
Moscow continues to withhold its own casualty statistics and does not disclose the scale of its military losses.
