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The European Union is increasingly frustrated with how skillfully Viktor Orbán has set traps — and how easily the bloc has fallen into them.
When the Hungarian prime minister began threatening to block a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, he crossed a “red line” in his confrontation with Brussels. According to Politico, citing five EU diplomats and one government minister, retaliation from the EU could come soon after Hungary’s elections — or even earlier.
While the EU has so far avoided a serious confrontation with Hungary, that cautious approach may change after the vote. Sources say concerns about boosting Orbán’s campaign are now being outweighed by the need to deter other leaders from copying his tactics. They insist that consequences for Orbán are inevitable regardless of the election outcome — though they would come much faster if he is re-elected. He is currently trailing his main rival, Péter Magyar, by nine percentage points.
“The behavior of Hungary is a new level of low,” said Sweden’s EU affairs minister Jessica Rosencrantz ahead of a European Council meeting scheduled for March 19. Asked whether Stockholm would consider legal tools against Hungary — including triggering Article 7 of the EU Treaty to strip Budapest of voting rights — she replied: “Absolutely, we are open to it.”
If Orbán is re-elected, one diplomat said, there will be a “serious discussion” among a group of countries about how to deal with Hungary going forward. That discussion could take a different turn if Magyar wins, as he has signaled a more constructive approach. In that case, EU leaders are likely to adopt a “wait-and-see” strategy toward the new government.
What exactly the EU will do to contain a re-elected Orbán remains unclear. So far, it has proven impossible to secure support from 26 out of 27 member states to pursue Article 7 proceedings against Budapest. However, diplomats say other legal options are being considered, such as tying EU funding to stricter rule-of-law conditions or taking legal action over Hungary’s obstruction of the loan.
During a closed-door meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels earlier this week, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul made clear how little patience remains within the EU. According to diplomats, he warned that Budapest’s obstruction can no longer be tolerated. They described his remarks as “very direct” and “very clear,” leaving no doubt that the situation has reached its limit. Other ministers were reportedly even more blunt in their exchanges with Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó, leaving him “stunned.”
“Prime Minister Orbán must understand that he is constantly testing the limits of what other member states are willing to tolerate. This cannot continue,” said another senior EU diplomat.
According to a third diplomat, Orbán’s actions “will definitely have consequences after the elections.” For now, the EU is essentially waiting for the vote to take place.
What particularly frustrates critics is how effectively Orbán engineered the latest standoff — and how easily EU leaders walked into it. Simply blocking the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia was not dramatic enough. But the Druzhba pipeline, damaged during a Russian attack in January, proved to be the perfect trigger.
Orbán used the halt in Russian oil supplies to block the €90 billion loan, thereby breaking a promise he had made to other EU leaders. At the same time, he created a perfect political confrontation between Brussels, Budapest, and Kyiv for his campaign. The Hungarian leader — now the longest-serving member at the European Council table — capitalized on this by delaying an armored convoy transporting Ukrainian gold and officials, and then publishing a video claiming that Ukraine had threatened his family.
The situation was further complicated by actions from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who refused for weeks to allow EU inspectors to examine the pipeline and later stated he was not interested in repairing it. “This has been building for weeks. And now we are here at the Council, and once again it’s his [Orbán’s] show,” one diplomat said.
António Costa, President of the European Council, hinted at a tougher stance in a letter sent to Orbán on February 23. The letter warned that by withdrawing support for the loan, Orbán had violated the EU principle of sincere cooperation, potentially exposing himself to legal consequences.
However, that threat has not yet been acted upon. An EU Council official told Politico that the idea of taking Hungary to court was dropped because proceedings would take too long, while the EU needs a short-term solution for the loan to Ukraine.
“This is hard to understand. They should have acted firmly — at least tried — while applying interim measures. That would have been something instead of this hesitation. But nothing came of it,” another diplomat said.
EU leaders now face a dilemma as Orbán once again threatens to dominate the European Council meeting: either call his bluff by removing the loan issue from the agenda — risking angering Zelenskyy, who has been invited — or confront Orbán directly, which would inevitably make it look as if the EU is giving in to blackmail.
“There is a clear reluctance to give Orbán the spotlight. We will not give him that space in the European Council. But if we fail to deliver the loan, Zelenskyy will be rightly furious.”
