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Oil prices have surged to levels not seen since July 2022, as the global energy market faces a shock more severe than the disruptions during the first Gulf War and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At the start of trading on Monday, March 9, 2026, U.S. benchmark WTI crude briefly crossed the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time since July 2022 and continued climbing. Both WTI and Brent were trading above $107 per barrel within minutes of the market opening, marking a jump of roughly 20%, according to Bloomberg.
The sharp surge was triggered by the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, which began in late February 2026 and has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Each year, more than $500 billion worth of oil and gas typically passes through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, accounting for roughly 20% of global supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The worst crisis in 35 years
Veteran oil market analyst Phil Verleger compared the current situation to two previous shocks: the 1990 Gulf War and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“Compare the data from the first week of the 1990 crisis and the first week of 2022 with the current situation. The raw numbers clearly show that this is by far the most severe supply disruption,” Verleger said. “Even the smallest distributors are reporting more concern today than at the start of the previous two crises.”
In 1990, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait removed roughly 4–5 million barrels per day from the market. In 2022, sanctions gradually restricted access to about 7–9 million barrels per day of Russian supply. However, the Strait of Hormuz was never blocked in either case. Now, almost no tankers are passing through it.
An empty strait
According to energy market intelligence firm Vortexa, only four oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, March 1. Earlier this year, the average was about 24 tankers per day. Data from the Joint Maritime Information Center shows that roughly 138 vessels typically transit the strait daily.
Major international shipping companies, including Maersk, have officially suspended transit through the waterway. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued formal warnings restricting maritime navigation in the area.
An alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 14 days to delivery times to Asian markets, significantly increasing transportation costs and intensifying supply shortages.
How prices surged
Brent crude closed at $72.48 per barrel on Friday, February 28. By Sunday, when futures trading resumed, it had already climbed to $79.11.
For the week, WTI jumped 35.63% — the largest weekly increase since the futures contract began trading in 1983. Brent rose nearly 28% over the same period, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020. Since the start of the conflict, oil prices have surged more than 55% from their January lows.
Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that Gulf producers could be forced to halt production within days if tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In such a scenario, he warned, oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel and potentially “crash global economies.”
Impact on consumers
The average retail gasoline price in the United States reached $3.41 per gallon over the weekend, rising by $0.43 in a single week.
In Ukraine, which relies heavily on imported diesel and gasoline, the surge in global oil prices will inevitably translate into higher fuel costs at gas stations — typically with a delay of two to four weeks after global price spikes.
Analysts at Capital Economics estimate that sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could add 0.6–0.7 percentage points to global inflation. That would complicate the task for central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which are still struggling to bring inflation under control. Neither institution currently forecasts a prolonged period of oil above $100.
Attempts to stabilize the market
President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. However, markets reacted with skepticism, as the continued rise in oil prices suggests traders were largely unmoved by the announcement.
Trump also said the conflict could last a month or longer and demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” effectively ruling out negotiations. He added that rising gasoline prices in the United States do not concern him, emphasizing that the military operation against Iran takes priority over short-term increases in fuel costs. Market participants see this as a signal that uncertainty could persist for some time.
