Photo: EPA
Europe’s largest maritime powers admit: reopening the Strait of Hormuz during active hostilities is nearly impossible
Europe’s largest maritime nations see no real way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping while hostilities between the United States and Iran continue. The continent continues to reject calls from Donald Trump to send warships into the strait, primarily due to fears of Iranian attacks, Bloomberg reports.
London’s perspective
UK Defense Secretary Alok Sharma [note: in original text “Al Karns” – presumably a transcription error] confirmed that discussions on possible military support in the region remain at a “very early stage.” Allies are currently trying to conceptualize the full scale of the problem and outline a clear path for next steps.
Karns warned that even escorting ships during active conflict would not guarantee reliable protection. According to him, an “extremely complex” multinational combination of air, naval, and strike capabilities would be required. This statement came a week after Defense Secretary John Healey [original text: John Gilly] warned that Iran may already be mining the strait.
Britain is preparing but moving cautiously. London is secretly placing some assets on high alert for deployment once the situation is deemed safe enough. Meanwhile, additional British military planners have been sent to the US Central Command in Florida to prepare a post-conflict strategy. At the same time, the UK is negotiating with Lloyd's of London on insurance products and rates for post-conflict shipping in the strait.
Paris’ position
French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly stated that France will not participate in operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the situation stabilizes. He is, however, willing to join a ship escort system alongside other countries, including non-EU states, but only after prior negotiations with Iran.
Market impact
The hostilities are already affecting the global economy. Nighttime strikes on the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar triggered sharp price increases:
- European gas futures rose by over 35%;
- Brent crude oil prices reached $117 per barrel;
- Bonds worldwide fell amid expectations of interest rate hikes in response to inflationary pressures.
Rising tensions between the US and Europe
Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Europe are growing. Trump called the allies’ decision not to intervene a “stupid mistake,” stating: “Iran is almost destroyed. The only problem is the strait. Two people can throw small bombs in the water and paralyze everyone.”
UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant said a colleague from the Persian Gulf complained that the Americans “don’t know what they are doing.” He confirmed to Sky News: “It seems there is no plan, or it changes daily. It is obvious: the first thing Iran did in response was try to close the Strait of Hormuz.”
Although Trump claimed he did not know about Israel’s plan to strike the South Pars gas field before Iran retaliated against Qatar, multiple sources told Bloomberg that Israel almost certainly informed the US in advance.
Instead of de-escalating, Trump threatened to “massively destroy” the gas field if Iran struck Qatar again.
What’s next
Most European countries are urging the US to de-escalate, but their influence is limited. The rift between the US and its allies over Iran continues to widen. Meanwhile, the cost of this divide is literally rising hourly at gas stations and in household energy bills worldwide.
France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan condemned the Iranian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure in the Gulf and expressed their “willingness to participate” in securing the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The New York Times, President Trump started the war against Iran without explaining his strategy to either the American people or the world. Nearly three weeks into the conflict, he has no clear plan for overthrowing the Iranian regime—a goal he himself declared. Even if his objectives are more modest, such as seizing Iranian nuclear materials, he has offered no convincing method. Additionally, he did not prepare for the predictable consequences of a Middle East war—oil supply disruptions that drive up prices and hurt the global economy. Analysts noted that the war could have been avoided: Tehran offered serious concessions in Geneva, which UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell considered significant enough to prevent the conflict.
