Photo: facebook.com/orbanviktor
Elections in Hungary have not yet taken place, but in Budapest there is already debate over whether Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would accept the results if he loses. After his defeat in 2006, he mobilized people on the streets, and this time he might go even further.
This was reported by former Fidesz MP Zsuzsanna Szelényi to Politico.
Orbán may not accept the results
Szelényi, one of the first Fidesz members to leave the party, believes the prime minister could take extreme measures.
"If the opposition only secures a simple majority, Orbán will have many tools to make it practically impossible to form a new government or even convene a new parliament," she said. According to her, he could provoke a constitutional crisis or declare a state of emergency.
What polls show
Poll results vary depending on the source:
Independent companies and those close to the opposition candidate Peter Márki-Zay: Márki-Zay leads Orbán by 8–10 percentage points.
Companies affiliated with Fidesz (including the Nézőpont Institute and the Center for Fundamental Rights): show a confident lead for Orbán.
Orbán’s past behavior after defeats
Fidesz last lost in 2006. Initially, Orbán conceded defeat. But six months later—after a leak of a speech in which the Socialist leader admitted lying to voters—the situation changed.
Fidesz legislators used street protests: barriers around parliament were removed to allow crowds closer access. "Fidesz took politics to the streets and pursued the government through extreme obstructionist tactics in parliament," recalls Szelényi.
She believes Orbán is likely to repeat this approach. "Orbán may later make it very difficult for Márki-Zay to govern," she said.
Even if the opposition wins, it could face significant obstacles. Without a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Márki-Zay cannot implement most reforms, including those required by Brussels to unfreeze around €18 billion in EU funds blocked over rule-of-law issues.
Possible tactics
The media note that Orbán is unlikely to directly claim election fraud, as this could damage his chances for a political comeback. Instead, he may challenge results in individual districts and encourage supporters to protest in the streets.
"The more damage he can do to the new government and undermine it, the higher his chances for a future political return," political analyst Gábor Tóka told the outlet.
Previously, RBC-Ukraine reported that polling data does not fully reflect the situation: while Márki-Zay’s advantage is clear at the national level, elections are decided in single-member districts where Fidesz has deeply rooted networks in villages and small towns.
Thus, the outcome is unpredictable, and even experts cannot say who will win.
Meanwhile, Orbán has used Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement as a campaign tool—but voters may be less influenced this time. For years, the Hungarian prime minister has built a narrative of “I am protecting Hungary from external enemies.” Zelenskyy’s remarks fit this narrative perfectly, and pro-government media presented them as evidence of a threat from Ukraine. However, voters have heard this many times, and experts say the effect is weakening.
