Gulf states lose trust in Trump over Iran talks

Gulf states lose trust in Trump over Iran talks

Photo: EPA

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are increasingly frustrated with the Trump administration's handling of diplomacy with Iran and are discussing alternative security arrangements, The Washington Post reports, citing Arab and Western officials.

Over recent weeks, President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran before withdrawing those threats, citing progress in negotiations. Against the backdrop of ongoing missile and drone attacks by Iran and groups aligned with Tehran, Gulf governments have grown increasingly concerned about Washington's strategy. Some are even questioning the long-term presence of large U.S. military bases on their territory.

One Gulf official said Trump had initiated the war and that the region was now paying the price. According to the official, frustration with Washington is at its highest level since the conflict began in February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran.

Gulf states look for alternatives

Despite growing frustration, the Gulf monarchies remain heavily dependent on Washington for security and weapons. Qatar and Bahrain host major U.S. military bases, while the broader U.S. security presence in the region has been built over decades.

Still, some governments are exploring other partnerships. A notable example was last week's mutual-defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. A senior European official said the pact signaled that three influential Sunni states were seeking to diversify their security relationships because they no longer considered reliance on the United States alone sufficient.

The White House rejects that assessment, saying Trump maintains "exceptional relationships" with all Gulf partners and that Washington remains in regular contact with regional allies.

Trust in Washington is eroding

Analysts say Gulf frustration has been growing since the beginning of the conflict. Regional governments believe they were unnecessarily drawn into the war and are now questioning whether Washington can bring it to an end.

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East at Eurasia Group, described Trump's Iran policy as increasingly unpredictable and chaotic in the eyes of Gulf leaders.

Anna Jacobs of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington said confidence in the United States had declined since the war began, with some allies concluding that Washington's actions have made them less rather than more secure.

At the same time, a Western diplomat cautioned against interpreting the current tensions as a fundamental break with Washington. U.S. military forces had long been viewed in parts of the region as a necessary arrangement rather than something desirable. The question now, he said, is whether that presence remains necessary at all.

Saudi Arabia faces growing pressure

Saudi Arabia is under particular pressure. In addition to attacks linked to Iran and pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, the kingdom has faced attacks from Yemen's Houthi movement, which is backed by Tehran.

The Houthis have repeatedly targeted Saudi energy infrastructure and sought to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the war, Saudi Arabia was forced to route much of its oil exports through Red Sea ports.

The Gulf states initially differed in their approach to the conflict. Oman opposed the war from the outset, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain at times supported military action.

According to a Western diplomat, the UAE has carried out numerous strikes inside Iran, while Saudi Arabia has targeted Iranian-backed groups operating from Iraq. Initially, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reportedly believed that a swift military victory could benefit the region.

That assessment changed ahead of the first U.S.-Iran talks in April, when it became clear that the Iranian regime was unlikely to collapse and that the Strait of Hormuz would not quickly reopen.

U.S.-Iran deal failed to address Gulf concerns

Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said Washington lacked a clear strategy toward Iran even before Trump's latest contradictory statements.

He pointed to the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June, arguing that it failed to address issues considered critical by Gulf states, including Iran's ballistic-missile program and its support for proxy groups. The agreement subsequently collapsed.

The White House maintains that Trump has consistently favored diplomacy and blames Iran for the escalation, saying Tehran chose violence by attacking U.S. forces and neighboring countries.

No real alternative to Washington

Despite their frustration, Gulf states have no immediate substitute for their security partnership with the United States.

A representative of one Gulf country said the region's only realistic option for now is to rely even more heavily on Washington because abandoning the partnership is not feasible.

Former U.S. ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq Douglas Silliman said he encountered significant criticism of Washington during a recent trip to the region. At the same time, he observed growing anger toward Tehran over its attacks on infrastructure and refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The result, he said, is a contradiction: Gulf governments are angry with the United States for starting the war while remaining dependent on American weapons, ammunition and intelligence.

Conflict threatens Gulf economies

A prolonged conflict could increase economic pressure across the Gulf. Business activity traditionally slows during the summer, while tourism declines and residents spend less time outdoors because of extreme heat.

The region normally sees economic activity pick up in the autumn. This year, however, dozens of conferences, summits, festivals and Formula 1 races scheduled between October and December could be affected.

One early indicator of whether business confidence is returning could be Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative, often dubbed the "Davos in the Desert," scheduled for late October.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced plans for unprecedented economic pressure on Iran, with new measures expected to be unveiled next week.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the central disputes between Washington and Tehran. The United States insists on freedom of navigation, while Iran has linked the full reopening of the route to concessions, including sanctions relief.

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