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Russian President Vladimir Putin expects Russia to fully capture Donbas by autumn 2027. If Moscow fails to achieve that goal, negotiations with Ukraine could become more likely, The New York Times reports, citing Western officials and analysts.
According to the newspaper, Putin believes Russia must at minimum establish full control over Donbas. If Russian forces cannot accomplish this by fall 2027, officials and analysts say the prospects for negotiations would increase.
Western officials also expect Russia to intensify its attacks this winter, particularly against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, exploiting Kyiv's shortage of air-defense missiles.
Russia is also expected to announce another mobilization after parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-September.
Some Western officials fear that Putin, feeling increasingly cornered, could escalate the war further and test NATO's unity by going beyond the hybrid attacks Russia has already carried out across Europe.
Europe wants a say
European allies continue to hope that the United States will pressure Russia to enter meaningful negotiations with Ukraine.
At the same time, European governments increasingly view the war and future relations with Russia as issues too important to leave indefinitely to the Trump administration, which they consider increasingly unpredictable.
European officials want to ensure that Washington and Moscow do not reach any agreement over Ukraine without European involvement, according to the NYT.
Russia continues attacks
Russia continues to intensify missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces are increasing attacks on Russian military facilities and logistics deep behind the front lines.
Russian forces also suffered some of their heaviest losses of the full-scale war in July.
Ukraine remains interested in continuing negotiations with Russia if they involve substantive discussions on a ceasefire. Moscow, however, continues to reject major compromises and insists that Ukraine give up significant portions of its territory.
