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Russia has introduced a coercive scheme to replenish battlefield losses by pressuring migrants into joining the military, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
Instead of open recruitment—which has sparked criticism from countries in Asia and Africa—the Kremlin is reportedly applying systemic pressure on foreign nationals living in Russia.
“Migration pressure” as a recruitment tool
According to Ukrainian intelligence, authorities are deliberately creating intolerable living conditions for migrants without Russian citizenship.
Even minor administrative violations can now lead to deportation, while the main alternative offered is signing a contract with the Russian army.
The policy is linked to the government of Vladimir Putin and reflects growing manpower shortages amid heavy losses in the war against Ukraine.
Deportation statistics and hidden intent
Data cited by the intelligence service shows that more than 157,000 foreigners were forcibly expelled from Russia in 2024 — a 45% increase compared to the previous year.
In 2025, the number reportedly dropped to around 72,000, but not due to policy changes. Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev admitted that authorities “could deport ten times more,” but lack the financial resources.
According to Ukrainian officials, those who are not deported due to budget constraints may instead be redirected toward military service.
Expanding legal pressure
Russian authorities are also preparing legislative changes that could broaden the scope for targeting migrants.
Foreign nationals could face deportation—or coercion into military service—for:
- alleged violations of religious laws,
- “abuse of freedom of speech,”
- or sharing content labeled as “extremist” on digital platforms.
This effectively means that even minor online activity could become grounds for pressure.
Citizenship in exchange for service
The Kremlin is reportedly betting that migrants seeking legal status and protection for their families will “voluntarily” choose military service.
Formally, this is presented as a fast-track path to citizenship. In practice, Ukrainian intelligence argues, it amounts to coercion—using foreign nationals to offset losses and delay broader мобілізація among Russian citizens.
Military buildup
Separately, reports indicate that Russian command plans to deploy mobilized personnel currently stationed in occupied Crimea to the front starting April 1, along with reinforcements from marine and airborne units.
These measures are seen as part of broader efforts to sustain offensive operations, including a potential spring-summer campaign in eastern Ukraine.
