Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine
Around 60% of Russia’s current military losses are irreversible, meaning servicemen killed in action, Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) Oleh Ivashchenko said in an interview with The Times.
Ivashchenko said Russia has sufficient military and economic resources to continue the war into 2027 and 2028, but could exhaust those resources sooner if its losses continue at the current rate.
“Russia has military and economic resources for next year, but we estimate they will run out in 2028,” Ivashchenko said.
During the interview, he reviewed a daily intelligence report showing Russia recruiting around 1,000 people a day, and sometimes as many as 1,200.
At the same time, Russian daily losses have been significantly higher. Ivashchenko cited 1,410 losses on one day and 1,551 on the previous day, including 835 killed in combat.
The Times noted that the roughly 60% fatality rate had remained relatively stable over the preceding week. The newspaper said such a high proportion of deaths among total casualties is exceptionally unusual in modern warfare. For comparison, fatalities accounted for slightly more than 16% of U.S. casualties during the Vietnam War.
Based on the figures provided by Ivashchenko, The Times estimated that another 18 months of fighting could result in around 765,800 Russian casualties, including approximately 459,480 fatalities and 306,320 wounded.
Growing pressure on Russia
Western intelligence officials cited by the newspaper believe Ukraine has been able to inflict heavier losses through increased lethality, battlefield innovation and its growing ability to conduct long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory.
They also assess that domestic pressure on Russia is increasing because of limited progress on the battlefield, unpopular restrictions on the internet and fuel shortages linked in part to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
Former HUR chief and current head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov recently said that ending the war in the near term was unrealistic, arguing that previous agreements had collapsed and both sides had moved toward escalation.
Media reports have also indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has again set a deadline for capturing Donbas by spring 2027.
