Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Telegram
Russia is significantly weaker than it was at the start of its full-scale invasion but still has enough resources to continue the war against Ukraine through 2027 and 2028, Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) Oleh Ivashchenko said.
According to Ivashchenko, Russia’s main economic problems are a shortage of workers, a growing federal budget deficit and worsening conditions in the banking sector.
He said that weakening Russia’s ability to wage war over the next two years will require stronger support from Ukraine’s international partners.
“Sanctions must actually work. We understand which countries supply Russia with electronic components, machine tools and specialized chemicals. Many intermediary companies are emerging that bring into Russia what is later used by its war machine against us,” Ivashchenko said.
Strikes are affecting Russia’s war capacity
Ivashchenko described Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory as increasingly significant for Moscow’s military capabilities.
“If after a strike the enemy has to stop production, restore a facility, change logistics, redeploy air defenses and spend additional resources, this already affects its ability to wage war,” he said.
According to Ivashchenko, Ukrainian strikes are also contributing to Russia’s growing budget deficit, which he estimated at $82 billion.
He said Russia is gradually losing its sense that its rear areas are effectively inaccessible. Logistics routes are becoming more vulnerable, while alternative routes are increasingly expensive.
The goal, Ivashchenko stressed, is not simply to demonstrate how far Ukrainian drones and missiles can reach, but to reduce Russia’s ability to produce weapons, supply its troops and continue the war.
Former HUR chief and current head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov recently said that ending the war in the near future is unrealistic, arguing that previous diplomatic efforts had collapsed and the sides had moved toward escalation.
At the same time, media reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has again set a deadline for capturing Donbas by spring 2027.
